← Why the Better Team Loses · Lesson 2 of 3
One match against a season
A single match is one roll of loaded dice. A season is many rolls, and the better team’s edge shows more clearly as the matches add up.
Even so, in a short league the best team often does not finish top. Simulate a four-team league with each team playing six matches, and the strongest team tops it less than half the time.
Two leagues use the same teams. One plays 6 matches each, the other 38. In which is the best team more likely to finish first?
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