Why the Better Team Loses
Three short lessons on luck in low-scoring games: goals by chance, single matches against seasons, and what a league table really shows.
For grown-ups, from what OddsForge teaches children at Spark & Anvil.
Dice soccer
You'll need: Two dice per player, paper.
- A "strong" team scores a goal on a roll of 4, 5 or 6; a "weak" team only on a 6. Each team rolls twice per match.
- Play a short league of three matches, then a long one of twelve, keeping a table.
- Before you start, guess how often the weak team will win a single match.
- Compare the short and long leagues: in which did the strong team come out on top more clearly?
A little history, and what nobody knows
The shoot-out
Football adopted the penalty shoot-out in 1970 to settle tied knockout matches; the first at a men’s World Cup was West Germany against France in 1982.
Whether the team that shoots first has an edge is not settled: studies disagree.
Source: Penalty shoot-out (association football) (Wikipedia)
The same idea at every age
- Ages 3–5Two Teams
- Ages 6–8The League Table and 2 more
- Ages 9–14Kicker and Keeper and 3 more
- Ages 15–18Goals by Chance and 2 more
Your child will meet this idea again at every age. The tools and courses here are the part for you.