← Why the Better Team Loses · Lesson 1 of 3
Goals by chance
Goals are rare, so a simple model treats them as random events with an average rate, a Poisson distribution. A team averaging 1.6 goals scores exactly one goal more often than any other number, about a third of its matches, and none about a fifth.
In such a low-scoring game, a single lucky or unlucky goal changes the result.
Team A averages 2 goals a game, team B 1. In the simple model, which result is most likely for A?
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