← Points Per Shot · Lesson 3 of 3
The hot hand
In 1985 three psychologists studied streak shooting and concluded that the "hot hand" was an illusion. In 2018 two economists showed a subtle bias in the way streaks had been counted: in short sequences, the expected share of hits after a hit is below the shooter’s true rate.
Corrected for that bias, the old data showed a small hot hand after all. How big it is in real games is still argued about.
Flip a fair coin 3 times, many times over. In each set, look at flips that follow a head and take the share that are heads, then average those shares. What do you get?
A lesson is kept once you've answered the question and written at least 8 words. Nobody grades it; it stays on this device.