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Points Per Shot

Three short lessons on basketball numbers: expected value, the three-point revolution, and the long argument about the hot hand.

For grown-ups, from what ChanceForge teaches children at Spark & Anvil.

  1. Lesson 1Expected points
  2. Lesson 2The three-point revolution
  3. Lesson 3The hot hand
At the table · Two or more, ages 6 and up

Paper-ball shooting

You'll need: A bin, scrap paper, tape for two lines on the floor.

  1. Mark a close line worth 2 points and a far line worth 3.
  2. Everyone takes ten shots from each line and keeps a tally of makes.
  3. Work out points per shot for each line: makes × value ÷ 10.
  4. Decide together which line is the better choice, and whether that is the same for everyone.
Where the numbers came from

A little history, and what nobody knows

The line

The American Basketball League first used a three-point line in 1961, the ABA from 1967, and the NBA from the 1979–80 season. It made a long shot worth half again as much as a close one.

Whether it changed the game for the better is argued, and not settled.

Source: Three-point field goal (Wikipedia)

Your child's ladder · on Spark & Anvil

The same idea at every age

  1. Ages 3–5Not made yet
  2. Ages 6–8Every Way to Make 10
  3. Ages 9–14Points per Shot
  4. Ages 15–18The Hot-Hand Benchmark

Your child will meet this idea again at every age. The tools and courses here are the part for you.

Everything for a child who loves basketball →

Print the guidebook (all lessons + the table activity) →