← Points Per Shot · Lesson 1 of 3
Expected points
A shot’s value per attempt is what it is worth times the chance it goes in. A two-pointer made half the time is worth 1.0 point per shot; a three made 35% of the time is worth 1.05.
That small difference, repeated over many shots, decides games.
A free throw is worth 1 and a player makes 80%. A two-pointer goes in 45% of the time. Which is worth more per attempt?
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