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Spark & Whetstonethe grown-up commons

← Spark & Whetstone · Finding Where to Start

The Route

Two walks through what is here, each starting with something that pulls you in before it names the idea. Take the steps in order or not at all — every step is open, and this page does not know where you are on it.

From a guess to Bayes

Start by guessing something real, then learn what your guesses were made of.

  1. Today's guessOne real question with a range you are 90% sure of. You will find out how often your ranges hold.
  2. Near EnoughWhy a good rough answer beats a precise wrong one.
  3. What "likely" meansPutting a number on a feeling.
  4. A coin has no memoryThe mistake almost everyone makes after a run of heads.
  5. Nine in tenTry your ranges at the table, on things you can count in the room.
  6. Weighing a rare thingBase rates: the idea behind Bayes, counted out of a thousand.
  7. The Forecast TableOdds on tomorrow, written down and checked together.
  8. The Sealed EnvelopeTen predictions about your own year, opened next year.

From a trap to the Opera Game

Start with one move you can see, end with the most famous short game ever played.

  1. Teach the MoveOne idea at a time, shown on the board.
  2. The Motif LedgerThe handful of patterns behind most short wins: forks, pins, the back rank.
  3. The Problem PageA position, a question, and the answer when you ask.
  4. The Opera Game as a FamilyGet your pieces out, open the lines: the lesson the Opera Game teaches.
  5. The Opera Game, 1858Replay it move by move. Every move brings a piece into the game.
  6. A calm gamePlay one yourself, against a patient opponent, then look back at it.
  7. The study roomKeep going at your own pace.