← Spark & Whetstone · Why the Better Team Loses
The Shot Map
From the penalty spot the goal is 36.8° wide; from the corner of the box it is 10.3°. Tap where each shot came from and the map reads the angle and adds up a rough chance.
The half pitch
Tap a spot, or use the fields below to enter a shot by hand. The goal is at the top; distances are metres.
The shots
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How the map reads a shot
The goal is 7.32 metres wide. From a spot x metres out and y metres across, the angle between the posts is the difference of the two angles to the posts: about 36.8° from the penalty spot, 21.8° from the corner of the six-yard box, 10.3° from the corner of the eighteen-yard box. Spots that see the same angle lie on a circle through both posts, which is why a shot from wide on the touchline sees almost nothing.
The chance is a two-point curve fitted through the figures the Soccermatics shooting model reports for angle alone, about 30% from a 55° view and 6% from 17°. It ignores distance, defenders, the keeper and the foot, so it is a shape to talk with, not a prediction, and adding the chances up gives an expected-goals-style total for the same purpose.
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