← Thinking in Loops · Lesson 3 of 4
Delays
In a hotel shower you turn the tap, nothing seems to happen, so you turn it more. Then the hot water arrives all at once and you jump back. You turn it down, wait, feel nothing, turn it down more, and now it is cold.
Nothing was wrong with your judgement. You were steering by water that left the heater some seconds ago. A delay between acting and seeing the result makes almost anyone overshoot, then overcorrect.
The fix is rarely to react harder. It is to act a little, then wait as long as the delay before acting again. The same holds for adjusting a budget, a medication with a doctor, or how much to order for a shop.
The hotel shower
Water temperature (°C): starts at 25, ends at 11, highest 60. What you wanted: starts at 38, ends at 38, highest 38.
Try this: Set the delay to 0, then to 4. Same person, same nudges — only the wait changed.
What this model assumes
- You turn the tap by how far the water feels from what you want. (argued about)
- The water you feel left the heater a few seconds ago. (well established)
You water a plant and it still droops an hour later. What does the shower suggest you do?