← The Forecast Table · Lesson 3 of 3
Scoring how well you knew
When you next meet, open the envelope. For each question, score how far your percentage was from what happened: if it happened, count it as 100%; if not, 0%. The distance from your number is your miss. Smaller is better.
A forecaster who says 90% about everything will miss badly when they are wrong. One who says 60% and is right six times in ten is well calibrated. Over several evenings you learn what your percentages really mean.
You wrote 80% and it happened. You wrote 80% on another and it did not. Which miss is bigger?
A lesson is kept once you've answered the question and written at least 8 words. Nobody grades it; it stays on this device.