Skip to content
Spark & Whetstonethe grown-up commons

← Learn

Thinking in Odds

Six short lessons on chance: what "likely" means, why a coin has no memory, how to weigh a rare thing, what a fair price is, what a bingo hall keeps, and what the banker keeps at a festival dice game.

For grown-ups, from what ChanceForge teaches children at Spark & Anvil.

  1. Lesson 1What "likely" means
  2. Lesson 2A coin has no memory
  3. Lesson 3Weighing a rare thing
  4. Lesson 4A fair price
  5. Lesson 5The bingo hall
  6. Lesson 6The festival dice
At the table · 2 or more, any ages

The two-dice table

You'll need: Two dice, a pencil, paper.

  1. Before rolling, each player guesses which total (2 to 12) will come up most often in 36 rolls.
  2. Take turns rolling both dice 36 times in all. Tally each total.
  3. Look at the tally together. Which total won? Most tables see 7 — there are six ways to make it, and only one way to make 2 or 12.
  4. Talk it over: whose guess was closest, and why is the tally lumpy even though 7 is the favourite?

Print the guidebook (all lessons + the table activity) →